Analyst expects GTA V not to release until 2013

An April or May release seems most probable says Bhatia

Stern Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia is speculating firmly that Grand Theft Auto V will not be released in 2012.

Rockstar has rested into a comfortable release routine since GTA IV was launched in 2008 with all their major titles being brought out between March and May (GTA IV was April 2008, Red Dead Redemption was May 2010, LA Noire was May 2011 and Max Payne 3 is due this coming May) and it would be comfortable to assume that they would not want to overshadow the release of Max Payne 3 with a Christmas GTA V release.

Bhatia's reasoning followed similar lines but also added the busy Christmas release window and a low launch install base of the Wii U as indicators that Rockstar will wait.

He stated, "We believe releasing GTA V in F4Q instead of F3Q will provide four advantages to TTWO: 1) a less crowded window away from the big holiday releases such as Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed etc. Recall, the previous GTA title (GTA IV) was released on April 29, 2008, i.e., also away from the holiday period; 2) smoother earnings in FY14 especially if GTA V launches in the last month of FY13 (March 2013); in other words it will result in stronger GTA V catalog sales in FY14; 3) a larger installed base including the potential for launch on Nintendo Wii U; and 4) an extra couple of months to polish the game."


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