As rapidly approaches, I suppose that we should ideally be preparing ourselves for a spot of selflessness, maybe some festive carol singing or perhaps religious contemplation and celebration. On second thoughts, why don't we simply instead dive headfirst into a rabid flurry of capitalist spending and gratuitous indulgence? Yes, good plan. Capturing this spirit of wanton waste and excess will be every and service sector in the western world, and gaming is of course no different. To celebrate this state of mind, and of course promote the idea that gaming is now one of the premier industries in the UK, the ELSPA today announced their list of games hotly tipped to grab the coveted Christmas Number One Slot. Okay, it might not be as "prestigious" as the title of Number 1 Christmas Single though the two industries are similar in one respect. Looking at the current state of the charts and their continual domination by manufactured bands cannot help but bring back memories of the battle between Rising Sun and Underground last year (EA are the Stock, Aitkin Waterman of the gaming market). Neither title was particularly good and better examples in both genres failed to sell as well. The eventual winner, Rising Sun, was critically derided across the board. Let's not also forget though that the bookies tip for the top game for Christmas 2003 was Popstars, a game that rightly performed terribly at retail. Personally, I wasn't surprised the prediction was way off the mark. You can hardly expect Ladbrokes, who collaborate with the ELSPA in formulating the predictions, to have much understanding of the average gamer. As for ELSPA, well, they're learning. Despite being around for 15 years it's still very much an association of the moneymen and corporate lobbies of the industry as opposed to the gamers themselves. A quick glance down this year's list at least makes it obvious that this year they've finally recognised the power that established gaming franchises have over non-gaming licences. 4/1 (joint favourite) - Call of Duty: Finest Hour
4/1 (joint favourite) - GoldenEye: Rogue Agent
7/1 - GTA: San Andreas
7/1 - Need For Speed: Underground 2
8/1 - 2
10/1 - 2005
10/1 - Burnout 3: Takedown
10/1 - The Getaway: Black Monday
12/1 - Tony Hawk: Underground 2
16/1 - Half Life 2
20/1 - 4
20/1 - WWE: Smackdown vs Raw
25/1 - SingStar: Party
25/1 - Prince of Persia: The Warrior Within
33/1 - Star Wars: Battlefront
33/1 - Lord of the Rings: The Third Age
33/1 - The Urbz
33/1 - Mortal Kombat: Deception
33/1 - Fight Club
50/1 - Miami Vice
50/1 - 2005 50/1 - Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
50/1 - Ratchet and Clank 3

At first glance the thing that struck me as a surprise was the tie for outright favourite. Now I'm not for one moment suggesting that or Goldeneye will perform badly at retail, but in the year when we have releases as gargantuan in scale as San Andreas and Halo 2, the Call of Duty and Goldeneye franchises appear somewhat belittled. Of course, being a "professional" as I am (if sitting around in your pants smoking roll ups and playing computer games counts as "professional") I must refrain from judging these titles before properly giving them a personal once-over, but I still admit that I have my doubts that either of them will perform greatly on a critical level. Even putting the distressingly dubious use of the Goldeneye license aside for one moment, Goldeneye hasn't exactly been raved about upon it's initial viewings with the press. Though of course many an N64 owning fan will undoubtedly pick it up once they stumble across it at their local GAME, with games like around, demanding such a thorough obedience from many a modern gamer and selling 670,000 in it's first weekend and a million in the first week, suddenly the successes of gaming past pale into commercial insignificance. Admittedly, Call of Duty is a more contemporary success. Still, up to now its previously been a PC-only title and never enjoyed the same commercial success as its console-bound contemporaries. Add to this the fact that to console conversions rarely produce games agreed to be an improvement on the original and once again I feel the predictions are way off. The chasing pack however is a very predictable bunch. Everyone knows that GTA is going to be stupidly popular and despite the fact that San Andreas has already sold so many units that each person in the country must own at least two copies already, it's still no surprise to see it up there. The obvious archrival is of course the mighty Halo 2, which at the time of writing is being quietly tipped to rival GTA at over its opening weekend. Still though, the undoubted advantage that comes with the PS2's mammoth user base is wisely recognised as a telling factor, and thus GTA has the edge as far as the tip is concerned. Also unsurprising is seeing EA's chav-tastic Need for Speed Underground 2 in the fray. Even now it still resides in the current top 20 and after some colossal last year we're right to expect some commercial success (as well as some correctly average review scores). However, if you consider that the sequel has come only a year after the first and that the game itself will perhaps fail to present anything substantially new over it's predecessor other than EA's predilection for simply offering more more MORE, it's natural to have doubts. The "bling" bubble has to burst one day (though that might just be wishful thinking?). Of course, I have no more idea of which title it will be than either Ladbrokes or the ELSPA, but it's easy to glance down the list and pass quick judgement. The likes of FIFA 2005, Burnout 3 and THUG 2 will all still be there or thereabouts and as Christmas approaches the rush of last-minute-Christmas-present-buying-mania that always ensues could see any of them sneak back up there. Half Life 2 will undoubtedly set new PC records but surely doesn't have a realistic shot at number one? For some godforsaken reason Smackdown vs. Raw will undoubtedly do very well and the prospect of Pro Evolution Soccer 4 on Live has without question sent many gamers (including myself) into a delirious frenzy. Other inclusions in the list simply astound me. The Getaway Black Monday? You'd be mad to put your money there. Miami Vice? Is this some sort of sick joke? Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events? Erm... what? Who the? How the? What the? And as for poor old Singstar, we still all believe that it should be a commercial success but we simply have to admit that it isn't. So, I guess the obvious question to me is, "So come on, what's your prediction you smug git?" It's a good question too, as much as I may mock and deride I'm not really too sure either. Need for Speed Underground 2 certainly has a very good chance, as much as it depresses me to admit. Exactly the same can be said of FIFA 2005 - what's wrong with you people? BUY PRO EVOLUTION for god's sake. It's such an obvious choice it hurts and if you've even a passing interest in you're going to enjoy it so much more. If you have then you simply have to own a copy. It's the law. may perform better at retail than some think too. Still though, above them all I think I have to put money on San Andreas. Yes, it's already sold half a billion copies or something but when a title proves to be as amazingly popular as it already has I think you'd have to be a fool to bet against it. Maybe I'll put a tenner on tomorrow. What's that? My personal preference you ask? No no, I couldn't possibly say what I'd personally want to win. That would be very unprofessional... BUT if I did chose to act in such a manner, I'd have to say Pro Evolution Soccer 4. If all goes technically smooth then PES4 on Xbox Live is going to be the greatest gaming event of my life, no question. I'd really love you to share that with me. Alternatively, please feel free to rush out and buy Outrun 2, for me the game of 2004 so far. Or possibly Halo 2. Or even Flat Out. If only they'd release Katamari Damashii over here...

By Ben Parfitt