Is the PS2 waning?
Ben looks at the facts effecting the current console climate.
In a recent article here on Ferrago I took great pleasure in attacking the rampant pestilence of fanboyism that has plagued the games industry since, oh I don't know, day one. The biggest target of such blatant jealousy-fuelled propaganda? The PS2 and Sony, undoubtedly. The reason for this is quite simple - the Playstation brand is currently the most successful in gaming. That kind of success always attracts criticism and it's a real shame. Sony have achieved an incredible amount in their relatively short time on the scene so far. In fact, Nintendo are the only company that have transformed the industry to a larger extent. However, in much the same way as a few years ago it was hard to imagine any team other than Manchester United dominating the Premiership, is the time nearing for another to take the throne?
Nonsense, you may claim, and you may well be right. Nonetheless, what prompted me down this line of thought was a quick perusal of the release schedules in the run up to Christmas and beyond. As much as some of us may dislike it, the current generation of machines have fewer days ahead than there are behind, especially if Microsoft get their way and accelerate the hardware turnover as it seems they intend to. Slate the GameCube as much as you want (though do not forget that worldwide it has sold more than the Xbox) but look at the upcoming releases for the machine and try not to be impressed. The excellent Donkey Konga has just hit stores for starters. Before Christmas we'll be playing Paper Mario 2, Metroid Prime 2 and Tales of Symphonia. In the new year we'll have Mario Tennis, Zelda Four Swords, Resident Evil 4 and a brand new Zelda title. To me that's a very exciting list. The Xbox too has a very impressive line up. Recently we've enjoyed the likes of Fable, Full Spectrum Warrior and Outrun 2. Before Christmas the machine will be hosting arguably the biggest release of the year - Halo 2. Add to that an online playable version of Konami's majestic Pro Evolution Soccer 4 and a new year release list that includes Doom 3, Half Life 2, Knights of the Old Republic 2, Forza Motorsport, Conker Live and Unloaded, as well as the now Xbox-exclusive Oddworld Stranger and you really must own an Xbox.
Look to the PS2 though and you can't help but wonder when Sony are going to announce the range of killer apps that will cement its machine's place firmly at the top. Obviously, this coming Friday's release of Grand theft Auto San Andreas is tremendously important, even if an Xbox port will no doubt eventually follow. Aside from Rockstar's offering though, it's hard to deny that things look a little sparse. Killzone is one title that many a PS2 fan is pinning their hopes on, but with each report that filters out the expectations in the industry decline. Of course, it may turn out to be an undisputed classic, but will it be the "Halo-beater" we've all been anticipating since the game was first announced? I'll bet you £100 it's not. Gran Turismo 4 was set to be the other big release. A few weeks back Sony announced that the title would definitely be out for Christmas, though it would be missing the much-touted online mode. Now, however, it seems that even this offline version will miss the festive rush. The only other exclusive release of note is The Getaway: Black Monday - hardly a blockbuster in the traditional sense.
There must be an explanation for this sudden decline and as far as I can see it must be one of three. Firstly, it might be a sign of complacency at the head of Sony. After all, the machine is leaps and bounds ahead of all the competition in terms of an installed user base. Maybe Sony doesn't need to bother. However, this does seem like an unlikely reason. Companies that get to the very top of an industry in the way that Sony has don't simply give up when they get there. They achieve such success through hunger, drive and hiring a lot of clever people that not only know the industry inside out but also are able to foresee what developments may occur in the future. Possibly this shift has more to do with the developers. Though many are now used to programming for the PS2's slightly obscure internal structure, the Xbox not only offers more power to play with but also a more familiar programming environment and a very handy hard drive. Still though, any developer knows that even a lower-selling game on the PS2 will often most likely outsell best sellers on other formats.
Perhaps the most likely explanation is simply that Sony is no longer focused on the present. Maybe their thoughts are more tied up with the future. After all, the PS2 launched significantly earlier than both the Xbox and the GameCube and some of its success can undoubtedly be attributed to this. The thought of Nintendo, or in particular Microsoft getting their next-gen machines onto the high street first would understandably be concerning. Though this does seem like the most likely explanation, Sony themselves have been quoted as saying that they abandoned the PSone far too early. It's common knowledge that the first Playstation sold at its best when it hit the magic £100 mark, a milestone that the PS2 has only recently achieved (ok, the RRP is £104.99, but how many retailers have you seen not rounding this off?). The idea that Sony are set to abandon the PS2 is simply too implausible.
Maybe then this situation is in fact the first sign that Sony's grip on the market is in decline. A little unlikely, perhaps, but let's not write off the idea without consideration. After all, it wasn't so long ago that it was impossible to imagine that Nintendo would be battling it out for second place with companies that are relatively new to the scene. Perhaps the main clue that hints towards some marginal misjudgements from the company is the forthcoming new handheld, the PSP. I'm not suggesting for one moment that the PSP is not set to be a resounding success. However, whilst Nintendo are set to launch their new handheld, the DS, in less than a months time with a great array of launch titles and a technically impressive machine, we're yet to discover exactly when the PSP will launch, and more importantly still, the battery life that it will boast.
You must remember that if you look at the history of the handheld market it's battery life that has traditionally been one of the most telling factors. Atari's Lynx and Sega's Gamegear were both technically wonderful machines. It was only the agonisingly poor battery life that let them down. It was the technically inferior but infinitely more portable Gameboy that instead went on to dominate the home market. I mean, what is the point of a handheld system if you can't stray away from a power point for more than a couple of hours? Worse still for Sony, not only do some rumours of the battery life suggest a far from rosy picture, but if some analysts are to be believed then the release of the machine may well slip very late into next year. Add to that a release list that currently looks suspiciously like a collection of PS2 back catalogue titles and it's no surprise that many former advocates of the system are slowly becoming less vocal.
Of course, we will have to wait and see. If there's one thing Sony does understand about gaming it's that marketability plays as important a role as quality in today's industry. It's often easy to forget when debating with fellow gamers and contributing to gaming forums that us "hardcore gamers" are in fact in the minority. We can enthuse about the innovation of the DS and the genius of Metroid Prime as much as we want - the fact is that the bulk of sales in this industry come from casual gamers that stroll into GAME and pick up the titles and machines with the largest advertising stands, flashiest covers and most familiar branding. It's this factor that ensures the PSP will enjoy heavy sales regardless. You only have to look at the machine to recognise what a marvellous consumer item it is. It's sleek, it's modern and most importantly it carries the Playstation brand. I'm not for one moment suggesting that it won't be a success. What I am suggesting is that for the first time factors are suggesting that maybe, just maybe, the tide might be starting to turn a little. It was only last week that the Xbox enjoyed better weekly sales than the PS2 in the US for the first time. Only time will tell and as long as great games are still being released you really shouldn't be fussed as to who's the daddy.
